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Good morning. It looks like we are back to the good ole movie references, this time it’s in remembrance of Ms. Hayden Panettiere. Although I hadn’t placed it at the time, I forgotten that Hayden played the young, football-loving daughter of Coach Bill Yoast in the movie, Remember the Titans, Sheryl Yoast. Sheryl loves the game, the team and expects all players, on both sides, to play with respect and dignity for each other. The same way we love and treat the travel + hospitality sector here at PMIPT. Rest well, Hayden.
Be First —
Is anybody betting on flights? Betting, not in a loose manner, but actually betting on flights. The prediction markets, which is this generation’s sanitary word for betting, is flying a bit too close to the sun.
FlightAware just filed a lawsuit in New York against the prediction market giant, Kalshi (Case No.: 1:26-cv-06824). At it’s core, FlightAware is alleging that Kalshi is offering bets on cancelled flights and presenting these bets as “verified from FlightAware”. This is trademark and reputation issue plus data source violation for FlightAware. Kalshi is already viewed as gambling in many states, especially in New York. Mike Pierce of In Debt, covers even the larger issue of growing debt loads with Gen-Z mainly due to the surge of gambling and sports betting. The behavior is worth noting that according to Bloomberg, Gen-Z is moving away from stocks and into sports betting in wealth plans.
Should our next 2 hour delayed flight be included in this bucket? Should we all open up a Kalshi account, only book our flights during hurricanes and tornadoes, bet on our flight cancellation, earn some dinero along our non-changable ticket voucher? Or should we join together, combine our “wagers”, and devise an elaborate scheme to hack into Crowdstrike and disrupt IT services similarly in 2024 when over 5K flights were cancelled? Be first to find out on the next episode of Dragon Ball-Z.
What may come of this filing remains to be seen and I wonder how our industry will respond. I think it’s important to watch and compare the impact or influence sports betting has had on the sports industry which could play out similarly if betting grows deeper in the aviation sector. Individuals driven to earn more on the platform could seek to act in extremely harmful ways for the simple sake of winning a bet. Aviation mechanics, pilots and passengers become collateral damage to markets and earnings. No matter what happens, you can trust that I haven’t been bought out. I retired my pup with the $20 I won in Puerto Rico at my first ever and last slot machine at 18. Been living the dream ever since.
I have attached the complaint, thoroughly read through it, highlighting some parts of the complaint that were distinct. I encourage readers to take a read through as well.
Case No.: 1:26-cv-06824
Be Smarter —
This past week, PMIPT covered the Samsonite purchase of Beis Luggage in Overhead Bin, Overtaken. $178.5M for 85% while the remaining 15% will sit at the brand focused venture firm, Beach House Group. Beis will remain standalone, at least for now. I found this acquisition extremely smart & necessary for Samsonite. For starters, it is their first acquisition in 10 years since the Tumi closing, in which Samsonite shelled out $1.8B. And for a company sitting under the PE firm, CVC — I can imagine that there exists market share conversations about Samsonite these days. So for about 11% of the acquisition cost of Tumi, Samsonite secured the younger, largely female consumer base that are looking for a luggage home. Most of us buy luggage once every ten years, and securing the next generation is vital. Tumi and more premium brands are slower to capture and adapt from their already pre - existing forms.
Or Cheat —
The US bought a boatload of Yen, estimated around $5B-$10B. Now you might be thinking, “so what?”. Perhaps, I should lead with “don’t worry your Japan trips will remain cheap”. That’s how you get the people going 😂 .
I want ensure that we understand why this US action matters. The yen hit a 40 year low, climbing to 164 yen two weeks ago. Why? Oil prices are rising all over the globe, Japan especially. All due to the Iran war since Japan imports nearly all of its oil. US steps in, at least reportedly, as a “gesture of goodwill”. One could label this a cheat, but I am opposed to that framing for two reasons:
The gesture didn’t really work as the yen dipped slightly to 157 yen, and is back to 159 yen.
The Iran war was the direct cause of US action.
Therefore the goodwill makes sense and given the strong relationship between Japan & the United States, it seems justified to assist the yen. Japan’s inbound tourism numbers are increasing for several factors including the exchange rate, especially for US visitors, as a driving advantage. I don’t for see the US to ever consider the purchasing or not purchasing of yen for travel related reasons but its after effects are at least understood.
Again, rest well, Hayden, you will be missed and till next week ✊🏾 Margin Call is issued weekly on Tuesdays, found only on Pay Me in Plane Tickets!
